The Year-Two Jump: What Renewal Costs After a Move-In Special

What is the year-two jump?

You signed at a great price, and now the renewal letter is higher than you expected. That’s the year-two jump. At the board’s median special, it was about 18% (board math, Oct 25, 2026). It’s the single most common surprise with apartment specials, and you can see it coming before you sign.

The reason is simple. Your first-year price was base rent minus a special. Your renewal starts from base rent. The special doesn’t carry over.

How do you calculate year two?

We use one formula on every card.

Year two = base x (1 + assumed change) + required fees

We show it at 0% change and at +3%. We don’t predict a community’s actual renewal offer, because the community sets it. But the 0% line tells you the floor if base rent doesn’t move at all.

A worked example

Here’s our Prose Riviana illustration in Katy, values as of Oct 25, 2026. Live pages use the feed.

At 0% change, that’s a $242 jump at renewal, about 22%. At +3%, it’s about $280 more each month.

The jump isn’t a reason to skip a special

A special still saves real money in year one. The point is to compare buildings on two years, not one, and to plan for the renewal before it arrives.

Why does the median jump sit near 18%?

The jump depends on how deep the special was. A deeper special means a lower year one, so the gap to base is bigger. On Oct 25, 2026, the board median special was 8.0 weeks across 128 market-rate communities, and 52% of them were at 8 weeks or more. At that median, year two lands about 18% above year one.

Shallow specials, like 2 or 4 weeks free, produce smaller jumps. Reduced base rent, instead of weeks free, produces almost none. Our year-two estimator lets you test your own numbers.

What can I do about it?

You have three main options when the renewal arrives.

1. Renew as offered. Simple, no moving costs. Make sure the new price fits your budget.
2. Ask for a better offer. If nearby new buildings are still in lease-up, you have leverage. Bring specific numbers.
3. Move to another new build. A new special can bring your cost back down, but count moving costs, deposits and fees.

Moving costs are real. An application fee, an admin fee, a deposit, movers and time off work can add up to more than a few months of the jump. We include those in the comparison.

What is the month-10 Renewal Check?

Around month 10, we look at your renewal offer and compare it with nearby new builds of the same size. You’ll see your offer next to two or three real alternatives, each with net effective, fees and year two. Then you decide.

If you’d like to understand every price field before then, our page on how to read our prices explains each one.

How renewal offers usually arrive

Most communities send a renewal offer 60 to 90 days before your lease ends, through the resident portal or by email. The offer usually lists several terms, like 6, 12 or 15 months, each with its own price. Shorter terms often cost more per month.

Read the notice period in your lease, too. If you plan to move, you’ll usually need to give written notice by a set date, often 30 to 60 days out. Missing it can cost a month of rent or a fee.

What to bring to a renewal conversation

If you want to ask for a better offer, specifics help:

• The current special and net effective at two or three nearby new builds of the same size
• Your payment history and any work orders that took too long
• The term you’d commit to, since longer terms are often easier to negotiate

Our month-10 Renewal Check puts those comparisons together for you. The community decides its offer, but a clear, polite request with real numbers is the clearest way to ask.

How do I see year two before I sign?

Every card on our board shows year two beside the special. Send us your shortlist and we’ll confirm the special, base rent and fee sheet in writing, then show year one and year two side by side, the same day during hours.